The one thing that most prophecies have in common is that they never come true. At least this is true when prophecies are made in advance of an event. It is quite a different thing to proclaim that some recent event was prophesied in sacred texts. The latter is a very common form of biblical exegesis.

It has long been a common assumption charismatic leaders who made prophecies that have clearly failed will suffer a serious loss of followers. In fact, social scientists are accumulated a substantial body of knowledge that contradicts this conventional wisdom. More times than not, groups with failed prophecies not only continue, but sometimes thrive. What is more, they continue to make prophecies

Prophecies can vary from a simple event in one's life (like a horoscope) to predicting the end of the world. The methods used to make a prophecy also vary widely from a leader's hunch, or claim to a revelation directly from God, to a complicated interpretation of scripture.¹ With the year 2000 around the corner, there has been a particular fervor in looking at world events for possible signs of the endtimes.  There are a few groups who look at the year 2000 as the beginning of a new era (see introduction), but most prophecies are pre-millennialists believing that the end or a period of tribulation is near.² 

If history, or even simple logic, tell us that most of the prophecies will fail,³  how do groups continue to grow despite false prophecies? The book When Prophecies Fail by Festinger, Riecken, and Schachter in the 1950s has long been viewed as the standard on this subject. They followed a small flying saucer cult named the Seekers who believed that they would be rescued from the apocalypse by aliens aboard flying saucers. The book argues that when a prophecy failed the group would experience "cognitive dissonance" and would proselytize to reconfirm their beliefs. The problem with the study, however, is that most of the subsequent followers were social scientists and the press who probably significantly influenced the results of the study. Also, this study only took one group into account. While there may be some validity to "cognitive dissonance," it is not enough to explain all failed prophecies.⁴

Lorne Dawson of the University of Waterloo has recently completed a significant survey of the "failed prophecy" literature. He finds that while many groups do suffer a membership loss, most groups continue to survive and a few even grow. Dawson identifies three strategies groups use after a failed prophecy:

1. Proselytizing: The group converts new members to compensate for the disappointment.
2. Rationalization: The group denies the failure with a plausible reinterpretation of events.

Four types of rationalization (or reinterpretation) :

• Spiritualization: The event occurred, but on an invisible, spiritual level
• Test of faith: The group proved their faith to the Lord and set an example for the world. Now they must prepare for the real event.
• Human error: There was a misunderstanding, miscalculation, or moral inadequacy of its followers.
• Blaming others: The followers did not do something properly or they took the prediction too literally. This is rare because it can often hurt a group.
3. Reaffirmation: Use the event as a challenge to act even more zealously. The group proved its devotion and vowed to become even stronger.

Dawson also presents a list of six things which may influence the adaptation strategy chosen:

1. The level of in-group social support. The more solidarity and communication, the better. Size helps, but coherence is  more important.
2. Role of leadership. The quicker, more confident, and higher amount of charisma that the leader uses, the better.
3. Scope and sophistication of ideological system. The more complex the ideological system, the easier it is to explain the failure and therefore it is easier for the group to recover.
4. Nature of the prophecies and the actions they inspire. The more vague and less extreme, the better.
5. Role of ritual in experience. The more ritual, the better.
6. Organizational structures. Such things as size and structure probably has an effect, but little is known.

Long standing groups, such as the Jehovah’s Witnesses, may easily survive because its members get deeply involved in the routine matters of keeping the organization going. A study done by Balch, Domitrovich, Mahnke, and Morrison followed a Bahai sect in Missouri.

After two decades of failed disaster predictions such as nuclear holocausts and asteroids, the group still continued. Whereas the first prediction consumed a lot of the group’s energy, the latter ones hardly caused notice. Over time the group became increasingly bureaucratic and involved in side activities such as a public access television show and church services. They termed this process "a culture of dissonance reduction" because the group supplanted their original goals with more achievable goals in the form of mundane administrative responsibilities. Their fervor for the predictions and their disappointed afterwards both declined (Robbins: 73-90).⁵

In the section that follows, we present here a list of links that have relevance to the broader question of "failed prophecies" which we invite you to explore. The off site links will launch a new window browser so that you can conveniently return to this page to explore additional links.

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Forming Prophecies

Hermeneutic

Hermeneutic means: "The method of interpretation that one uses to study something written or spoken; it is how one understands the Scriptures." This site offers five rules when forming a prophecy. (The Sign Ministries)

Lesson from next year prophecy

Discusses what prophecies are and are not.  They are not a prediction but can be a wake-up call. (Kathleen Norris, US News and World Report)

Dark Prophecies

As the millennium nears, apocalyptic visions are a call to faith. But do they destroy more than they inspire? (Jeffery L. Sheler, US News and World Report).

Prophecies Around the Year 2000

TNN-Tribulation News Network

A network designed to interpret current events in terms of prophecies.

Predictions and Prophecies

Argues that the British Royal Family are keys to the apocalypse.

Doomsday List

A list of many prophecies (a lot which are obscure) before and after 2000.

The Billennium: Millennial Prophecies

A short list of mostly secular prophecies around the year 2000.

Lists of Prophecies That Have Failed.

The Numbers-Failed Prophecies

A long list of failed prophecies, mostly from the past century. (Rapture Ready)

The Millennium, and 73 Failed End-of-the-World Predictions

Discusses some prophecies over the year 2000 and 50 past failed prophecies.  (Religious Tolerance)

Articles About Failed Prophecies.

When Prophecies Fail: The Watchtower Group

A sociological perspective of what happens when a group's prophecy fail by studying the Watchtower group of the Jehovah's Witnesses. (Randall Watters, Free Minds)

Chat on Failed Prophecies

A transcript of an online chat with US News and World Report's Jeff Sheler on millennium prophecies.

Groups Who Have Had Failed Prophecies.

Jehovah's Witnesses
Dates of Failed Prophecies
A list of failed prophecies by the Jehovah's Witnesses. (from the Watchtower Group)

Church of the Latter-Day Saints (Mormons)

Joseph Smith as a Prophet
Looks at Joseph Smith's prophecies. Written by an ex-Mormon so read accordingly.

Baha'i

Prophecy Fulfilled
How prophecies from various religions fit into the Baha'i faith.

The Millennium Page was created by Christopher W. Smith (cws2p@virginia.edu), an undergraduate history major at the University as partial fulfillment of an independent research project in the Department of Sociology. Mr. Smith was earlier a student in the New Religious Movements course and created a most interesting project on direct sales organizations as para-religious movements. He would welcome your thoughts and comments on The Millennium Page.

Jeffrey K. Hadden
hadden@virginia.edu
07/01/99