 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Millions of people take an apocalyptic view of the Bible seriously. A commonly held assumption is that these millenarian believers are potentially dangerous to themselves and the broader society. Only a few have actually ever turned to violence, and even fewer direct their violence outside the group. Still, the fact that a few have been engaged in violence is enough to cause wide concern about the potential for all millenarian religious groups to become violent.
This public uneasiness about millenarian groups is encouraged by the mass media. s tendency to focus attention of the prophecies of apocalyptic groups. As seen from the survival rates of groups who experience false prophecies, groups are a lot more complicated and resilient than they are portrayed in the media to be.
When it comes to predicting which groups, or types of groups, are likely to be dangerous or engage in violence, social scientists cannot claim a better record than the mass media. Very few people had heard of the Branch Davidians or Heaven's Gate until after the violent events that made national news headlines.
We can be reasonably confident that future violent eruptions in millenarian groups will also occur in groups largely unknown to social scientists, law enforcement agencies. and the general public. Still, it is unacceptable to throw up our hands and say that we cannot predict which group, or type of group, is likely to become involved in violence. Thus, it is appropriate that we should try to understand the social dynamics that may lead a group to violence.
Apocalyptic groups are radical in the sense that they reject the current world order for something different (Bromley: 34). The realm of the ideal world is distinct and quite separate from the existing world order. Finding a basis for integration of the two is difficult. Some groups see no basis for even trying and construct a world apart.
The decision of a group to isolate themselves from the larger world--whether physical, cognitive, or both--does not mean that the group is on a course that is likely to lead to a violent end. The goal of most groups is not to bring about the end but, rather, the creation of something new. How they view themselves and their role can differ greatly. Postmillennialists, or "progressive" millennialists, are by definition optimistic, looking forward to better days. Premillennialists, or "catastrophic" millenialists, more often see themselves as messengers warning of apocalyptic danger than agents acting to usher in the apocalypse (Bromley: 42). Thus, just because a group is apocalyptic does not assume a belief in violence, or a predisposition to act in ways that will bring about violence.
One aspect, which may influence violence among premillennialists, is the belief that the rapture will occur during the times of tribulation. Those who believe the rapture will not occur until the end of the years of tribulation are more likely to make defensive preparations, such as stockpiling guns, than those who believe the rapture will occur at the beginning. The Branch Davidians were midtribulationists, that is, they believed they would survive the early years of tribulation before being slain and then return for the final battle of Armageddon. A group that believes it must suffer through a period of tribulation is more likely to respond defensively to a threat from the "earthly" world (Anthony: 273). (see millennial history)
A combination of endogenous (internal) and exogenous (external) factors will almost always occur before a group turns violent. Endogenous factors include the belief systems and leaders of a group while exogenous factors are environmental factors which may cause hostility. Every group will vary in the amount of provocation needed to elicit a violent response (Robbins: 16-17). In the case of Waco, it took a ground and air assault before the group turned to violence. On the other hand, a visit from a congressman was enough to excite the murder-suicide at Jonestown (Anthony: 273-274). How exogenous factors may interact with the endogenous features of a group can affect a group. s tendency towards violence.
Lorne Dawson identifies three features which tend to be present in New Religious Movements before they become violent:
With a group who has apocalyptic beliefs, earthly laws may be considered relative and relegated to lesser status. With dualistic beliefs and an anticipation of the millennium, some groups may come to view outside laws as insignificant. Additionally, the apocalypse itself often denotes violent times and therefore the group may feel that defense is essential. Further, when everything is interpreted as either good or bad, groups may give great importance to relatively small events in an effort to demonize their enemies. Finally, a serious expectation of the apocalypse can blind judgement.
Intense commitment to a charismatic leadership is another feature that may be associated with the tendency for a group to slip over the edge and become involved in violence. Let us be clear that charismatic leadership is a normal and present in almost all kinds of organizations. It is especially likely to be present in movement groups--religious and secular. Charismatic leaders motivate their follows to act on faith, trust and commitment. Intense investment with the charismatic leader, in an environment that tolerates no questioning of the authority or ideas of the leader, is the kind of environment that may be conducive to violence somewhere down the line. Characteristics of a group that is heavily committed to a charismatic leader would include the following:
Social encapsulation is the final feature. By creating social and physical boundaries which separates the group from the outside, the group loses negative feedback, or even a sense of perspective of how they are viewed by outsiders. The Branch Davidians lived in a complex outside of Waco and were, for the most part, isolated from outside influence. The Heaven's Gate group was quasi-nomadic for two decades, experiencing very little contact with the outside world. Encapsulated unto themselves, groups construct a reality that is afforded little opportunity for reality testing. The threat of external interference may trigger an overreaction as occurred in Jonestown and the Branch Davidian compound.
It is important to note that all three of these features are present in many groups that never become involved in violence. Still, these features may provide a kind of screening template for eliminating groups with a very low probability for violence.
To the best of our knowledge, the rates of violence in millennial religious groups is probably comparable to the larger population. Further, it should be emphasized that some violence that is attributed to religious ideas is, at best, highly tenuous. For example, Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols, the bombers of the Oklahoma City Federal Building were both associated with the militia movement. At least part of the militia movement is associated with radical right Christian patriotism (Aho: 19). But we no firm evidence that either McVeigh or Nichols were motivated by, or perceived themselves as acting on behalf of a higher religious cause.
Similarly, the recent shootings at Columbine High School in suburban Denver have been traced to the "Goth" movement. [For a view on the apocalypse and the Columbine shootings see the article "Apocalyptic Nihilism"] Again, it would be wrong to say that a highly eclectic and diverse phenomenon known as "the Goth movement" provided either spiritual or secular legitimization or motivation to pursue large-scale violence.
In the final analysis, it is important not to lose sight of the fact that most apocalyptic beliefs do not presuppose, promote or cause violence. Further, we should be cautious not to rush to judgment and associate acts of violence with religious motivation when only the most tenuous of evidence might suggest a link. To opt for such an easy explanation of violence, however compelling socially, is to abandon the search for the real root causes.
Groups which have had violent histories
The Millennium Page was created by Christopher W. Smith (cws2p@virginia.edu), an undergraduate history major at the University as partial fulfillment of an independent research project in the Department of Sociology. Mr. Smith was earlier a student in the New Religious Movements course and created a most interesting project on direct sales organizations as para-religious movements. He would welcome your thoughts and comments on The Millennium Page.
Jeffrey K. Hadden
hadden@virginia.edu
07/01/99